From: Subject: Ockhams Razor - 8/10/1997: Evolution in Context Date: Fri, 27 Apr 2007 10:56:21 +1000 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="text/html"; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0000_01C788BA.B0C20B70" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.3028 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0000_01C788BA.B0C20B70 Content-Type: text/html; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www.abc.net.au/rn/science/ockham/stories/s234.htm Ockhams Razor - 8/10/1997: Evolution in = Context
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Evolution=20 in Context

Broadcast Sunday 10=20 August 1997
with

Summary:

Colin Groves is a = sceptic of the=20 scientific kind. In this talk he asks what it really takes = for some=20 people finally to accept some of the big ideas of our age, = such as=20 the theory of evolution.

Transcript:

Robyn = Williams:=20 Do you remember that delicious response to the moon landing = in 1969=20 when disbelievers claimed it had all been staged at a TV = studio in=20 Burbank? There were a few similar comments about Mars the = other=20 week, suggesting that the intrepid little explore was really = sending=20 pictures back form some desert in the mid-west of America. = Some=20 people are never convinced.

Well Colin Groves is himself a sceptic, but of the = scientific=20 kind. In today's talk he asks what it really takes for some = people=20 finally to accept some of the big ideas of our age, such as = the=20 theory of evolution. Dr Groves does archaeological research = at the=20 Australian National University in Canberra.

Colin Groves: We live on the surface of = a solid=20 globe, part of a planetary system in orbit about the Sun, = which=20 itself is an insignificant star in the Milky Way galaxy. = This much=20 we think we know. Or do we?

The best-know objectors to this model are the Flat = Earthers. A=20 flourishing and aggressive bunch as recently as the late = 19th=20 century, they are today an insignificant rump, a bit clapped = out=20 intellectually. The best that one of them could manage, when = challenged with a photograph of a very globular Earth taken = from=20 space, was "Yes, it's easy to see how someone might be = fooled by=20 that".

But there is another model too, that puts itself forward = as an=20 alternative to the Copernican view. In this view the Earth = is=20 spherical all right, but we are on the inside of it. The = stars and=20 the planets are tiny bodies, revolving around the earth's = internal=20 axis. The sun travels in a spiral, reversing itself every = six=20 months. Light (which travels in arcs) gets slower and slower = as it=20 approaches the centre of the earth, and finally stops, so = that we=20 can never see all the way to the other side. The only way to = get to=20 the other side is around the surface; if we tried to cut = across the=20 center, we too would go more and more slowly, and get = smaller and=20 smaller. If we tried to drill our way through the ground to = get out=20 of this cramped and claustrophobic system, its peculiar laws = ensure=20 that we would come out at the opposite side of the earth!

The Hollow-Earth model is discussed by Martin Gardner in = the=20 Summer 1988 issue of The Skeptical Inquirer, and he makes = the point=20 that it actually cannot be refuted! Its auxiliaries, the = ad-hoc laws=20 of motion and time, the behaviour of light, and so on, that = are=20 necessary to make it work ensure that it is entirely = physically and=20 mathematically consistent. The reason why most of us do not = believe=20 in it, but instead embrace the Copernican Theory, is the = principle=20 called Ockham's Razor: don't multiply your basic postulates=20 unnecessarily. The Principle of Parsimony. That's the = principle on=20 which all science operates, and must operate.

Science is the name we give to the system that describes = how we=20 know what we know, and simplicity - Ockham's Razor - is the = key to=20 this process of knowing.

Every branch of science has its great unifying = theoretical=20 models: the Theory of Valency, the Theory of = Electromagnetism, the=20 Theory of Relativity, the Theory of Quantum Mechanics, the=20 Copernican Theory. What they all have in common is Ockham's = Razor:=20 they simplify the basic assumptions. That is why they are = such=20 powerful explanatory tools. The biological equivalent is the = Theory=20 of Evolution.

What Charles Darwin did was that he proposed a mechanism = for=20 evolution - Natural Selection - and amassed a vast, = unanswerable=20 corpus of evidence for it. The mechanism was so simple, so = elegant,=20 as to make his friend Thomas Huxley exclaim, "How incredibly = stupid=20 of me, not to have thought of that myself!". The evidence he = produced made it quite clear that evolution was biology's = Ockham's=20 Razor. It explained the Law of Faunal Succession more = parsimoniously=20 than did the Revolutions of the Globe. It explained the = facts of=20 embryology, the paradox of homology, the peculiarities of = animal=20 distribution, the nestedness of taxonomic categories. Any = one of=20 these would be sufficient on its own to convince most people = that=20 evolution is more parsimonious than any conceivable = alternative.

A scientific hypothesis starts life as a tentative = explanation=20 for certain observations. A hypothesis that has survived all = the=20 tests we can throw at it is said to be Highly Corroborated = or=20 "Robust", and if it has been shown to have a wide = explanatory power=20 as well it achieves the exalted status of a scientific = Theory. Don't=20 demean the great Theories of science by calling any = fly-by-night=20 hypothesis "a theory". A Theory is a model of the way = systems work;=20 more than that, it is well corroborated and continues to be = tested=20 (the Theory of Evolution gets tested every time anyone puts = a spade=20 in the earth and brings out a fossil); more than that, it is = Ockham's Razor at work.

So who doubts evolution? The creationists, that's who.=20 Creationists are the Christian, Jewish, and some (but not = all) of=20 the Muslim Fundamentalists; and don't forget Hindu = Fundamentalists=20 too. Creationists are Pat Buchanan, Jimmy Swaggart, the late = Meir=20 Kahane, and (though I may be wrong here) the late Ayatollah=20 Khomeini. Creationists are not the Pope, the Archbishop of=20 Canterbury, the Chief Rabbi or (as far as I know) the = Patriarch of=20 Constantinople or the Aga Khan.

On what basis do these creationists doubt evolution? The = real=20 reason is that they have a sacred book, which says that = human=20 beings, animals and plants were created in much the same = form as=20 they exist today; but they give any number of spurious = reasons=20 connected with science. I find it despicable that people who = claim=20 adherence to strict religious tenets such as "don't bear = false=20 witness" can nonetheless misquote science to give a secular = gloss to=20 their religious bigotry.

The tenets of the Judaeo-Christian version of creationism = are:

- All organisms were created in one week, about 6,000 = years ago=20 (some allow for up to 10,000 years).

- The geological column was mostly (or, in some versions, = entirely) laid down in Noah's Flood.

- The fossil record consists mostly of the remains of = organisms=20 drowned in that Flood.

Hindu fundamentalism differs drastically, especially in = its=20 timescale. The Bible, taken literally, allows for a few = thousand=20 years since the creation of everything; the Hindu scriptures = have=20 billions and billions of years. The Judaeo-Christian version = forbids=20 any evolution whatever; the Hindu version doesn't = particularly mind=20 if other organisms evolved, it's just people that can't be = allowed=20 to. What they have in common is that human beings have been = around=20 from the beginning, and even the most scholarly of all = creationist=20 books, the Hindu 900-page Forbidden Archaeology, has to pull = out all=20 stops to "prove" that they were. Genuinely intermediate = fossils are=20 tossed aside, 19th-century claims of human remains in very = early=20 strata are wheeled out again. At least there's no mention of = Noah's=20 Flood.

Noah's Flood plays a big big part in Christian = creationist earth=20 history. We have seen that the Theory of Evolution elegantly = explains the Law of Faunal Succession. As the Christian = creationists=20 don't believe in long geological ages, and especially not in = evolution, Noah's Flood must do the job. How does it fare? = We find=20 four arguments used, some of them incompatible with each = other:

1) It's only chance that we haven't found all species at = all=20 levels. (The Cambrian elephants are there somewhere; a = thousand=20 excavations in Cambrian deposits haven't found them yet, but = maybe=20 the thousand and oneth will turn them up).

2) Hydraulic Sorting: the bigger, heavier animals sank to = the=20 bottom during the Flood. (The trilobites must have been = heavier than=20 the dinosaurs, that's all).

3) The more intelligent animals saw the floodwaters = rising, and=20 ran up to higher ground. (This Faunal Succession business = works for=20 plants, too. Everybody knows that flowering plants are more=20 intelligent than ferns or conifers).

4) The rock strata must be in the wrong order. (Steno was = wrong;=20 the 99+% of strata which are in the "evolutionist" sequence = must be=20 due to overthrusting or whatever).

How did all the animals get onto Noah's Ark, two by two = or (in=20 some cases) by sevens? A lot of species must be taken on = board, but=20 it can be managed. Dinosaurs, for example, could be taken on = as=20 eggs. There would be some problems, of course. Like how to = keep the=20 tigers from eating the wombats, and later ensuring that the = wombats=20 got safely back to Australia before the tigers caught up = with them.=20 Or like the one put to me by Ian Plimer: how to accommodate, = on a=20 wooden ark, 20,000 species of termites.

Does this sound a bit familiar? It's the Hollow Earth = again,=20 isn't it! It's the same ad hoc method of explanation; bits = and=20 pieces cobbled together to make the machine work, and if it = still=20 doesn't work satisfactorily, more bits and pieces tacked on = until it=20 does. The same blithe disregard for Ockham's Razor. And for = the same=20 reasons, too. The Hollow Earth model was revealed to its = originator=20 in 1869 by an angel, and its opponents castigated as = servants of the=20 Antichrist; a 20th century version added God sitting on the = throne=20 in the centre; and its leading exponents, past and present, = have=20 viewed it as their solution to the anxiety that the = meaningless=20 vastness of the Copernican universe may engender.

What should we do about these creationists? In September = 1995 I=20 was asked by the Daily Telegraph Mirror to provide a short = piece for=20 its "Education Times" section on the trend to so-called = "Christian=20 Schools" in Australia, alongside a similar piece by an = advocate of=20 these schools. My piece was butchered and watered down quite = a bit,=20 as I might have expected. The arguments advanced in favour = of=20 fundamentalist Christian schooling stressed defence of = traditional=20 Christian values; the same search for meaning and stability = in a=20 changing world as we heard from the Hollow-Earthers. This = should not=20 be underestimated as a motivating force for religious=20 fundamentalism. Constant change and uncertainty can generate = anxiety, and this in turn may feed a fervent will to believe = in=20 traditional, unchanging concepts. But a "will to believe", = however=20 passionate, must not be allowed to determine what children = learn. I=20 mean science of course, including evolution; but I also mean = learning about other ways of thinking - the full richness of = human=20 life, multiculturalism in its fullest sense. To learn and to = understand is to be just that much more in control, just = that much=20 less at the mercy of this changing world that = fundamentalists fear=20 so much.

Peter Crimmins, the apologist for the Australian = Association of=20 Christian Schools, wrote: "an important part of a truly = Christian=20 education is the ability to examine what lies behind one's = own=20 beliefs and the views expressed by others and to measure = these by=20 the truth revealed in the Bible". Fundamentalists have = already=20 hijacked the dictionary: they have changed the meanings of = words=20 like Evolutionist and Creation, and they seem bent on = changing the=20 meaning of Christian. Reading that they now want to change = the=20 meaning of whole phrases like "the ability to examine what = lies=20 behind one's own beliefs" is depressing beyond belief.

The whole of science, in all its richness and excitement, = must be=20 available to children in the classroom. Anything less is = unfair to=20 them, and to society. Science is hypothesis testing; = children must=20 not be given the idea that it is a method of shoring up ones = previous beliefs, of confirming ones biases.

More than that. Hypothesis testing means humility: the=20 willingness to admit that one may be wrong. Fundamentalist = religion=20 teaches the very opposite: the terrible certainty that one = point of=20 view is right. To teach that to children - that is not = education.=20

Robyn Williams:Colin Groves, from the = Department=20 of Archaeology and Anthropology at the Australian National=20 University.

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